Two Texas natives are battling for the Golden Boot as we inch closer to the final two months of the regular season.
Fort Lauderdale United’s Addie McCain and Dallas Trinity’s Allie Thornton sit at nine goals each, leading the league and propelling their teams to the top three in the Super League standings.
Which one is most likely to reach double digits goals first and will they end up finishing the season with the most scored? Here’s why the stats give Thornton the edge to claim the award.
STRAIGHT SHOOTER
When it comes to finishing, Thornton might be the most lethal finisher in the Super League. She has led the league nearly all season with her shooting accuracy, which currently stands at 67.9%, the highest among players with minimum 12 shots. She has the most shots on target (19) and the best minutes per goal ratio (153.11).
That said, McCain is not far behind. She has 26 total shots, just two fewer than Thornton, with 13 on target for 50% shooting accuracy. She has also played nearly 200 more minutes than Thornton, so her mins/goal is slightly higher at 171.44, but she has an xG of 5.59 to Thornton’s 5.83.
POSITIONAL ADVANTAGE
Thornton’s role is crucial, even though the type of goals she and McCain have scored are nearly identical. All 18 of the duo’s goals have come from inside the penalty area, both have one headed goal and only one of McCain’s goals has been from the penalty spot.
But their starting positions matter and play a role in why Thornton will likely finish first. She is a true striker and spends nearly the entire match in Dallas’ attacking third. McCain, on the other hand, is frequently dropping back and getting on the defensive end as a center midfielder.
Below are the heat maps from the Dallas vs Fort Lauderdale match on November 2, with Thornton on the left and McCain on the right.
TEAMMATE INFLUENCE
When your team is relying on you to be a finisher, it makes a difference. That’s not always the case for McCain, whose FTL teammates Jasmine Hamid, Sh’Nia Gordon and Kiara Locklear have scored eight goals this spring, helping carry the side to top spot. On top of that, both of McCain’s assists this season have come since the return from the winter break. If the team is finding success through McCain winning possession in the midfield and creating chances for her teammates, there will likely be fewer goal-scoring opportunities for her the rest of the season.
By contrast, while Thornton and the Trinity attack also gained offensive reinforcement through the winter additions of Lexi Missimo and Camryn Lancaster, there’s no question as to her role in the Dallas lineup. Thornton’s years of experience – and already spending the first half of the season creating chemistry with midfielders Amber Brooks and Chioma Ubogagu – still make her Dallas’ first option, and the player they’ll count on to deliver in the opposing penalty area down the stretch.
Both teams have 10 matches to go and are setting themselves up for postseason play. Everyone should be keeping a close eye on these two going forward to see who will earn the inaugural Super League Golden Boot.